Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 highlighted several weaknesses within the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, notably:
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- The significant disparity between US and European aid to Ukraine in absolute terms, especially regarding direct military aid.
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- The relative disparity in support given to Ukraine by various members of NATO and the EU.
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- Reluctance in Europe to increase defence spending until 2024/2025, with more firm commitments coinciding with an increasing likelihood of a Trump administration.2
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- Diverging views among allies as to how to end the conflict, most notably characterised by the Trump administration’s possible willingness to recognise Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine in return for a peace deal.
Britain’s leading role in supporting Ukraine reaffirmed its commitment to European security and enhanced its standing, particularly among Central and Eastern European countries. Europe’s relative weakness compared to the US has accelerated European defence spending and capability development, creating opportunities for UK-European defence industrial cooperation. However, it should also reaffirm the continued importance of US security guarantees and the need to maintain cohesion among allies.
The United States and Euro-Atlantic Security
While the US has maintained a longstanding commitment to the defence of the Euro-Atlantic, two main strands of thinking are prompting a change in security policy.
The first of these is US frustration at the relatively low levels of defence spending by other nations in NATO. The second is the push to redirect resources and materiel towards the Indo-Pacific to help prevent a potential conflict with China. While this shift has been apparent in US policy thinking since at least the Bush administration, it has taken on a renewed importance under the incumbent Trump administration, which has implied that US guarantees of collective security are contingent on adequate military spending by members of NATO.
At the same time, it would be premature to conflate frustration about burden-sharing with a radical change in US posture. The Trump administration continues to support the Washington Treaty,
including Article 5 of NATO. While its position on Ukraine has diverged from its European allies,
it continues to provide military and intelligence assistance and is looking at alternative ways to
sustain long-term security support such as via the 2025 US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement.
EU Strategic Autonomy: Ambition and Reality
The EU, which has long harboured ambitions to become a geostrategic actor, has responded to
this changing context by accelerating its planning for “strategic autonomy”.5 This has included the
creation of new defence funding mechanisms, such as the European Defence Industry Reinforcement
through common Procurement Act (EDIRPA), the Act in Support of Ammunition Production
(ASAP), and more recently, Security Action for Europe (SAFE), a €150 billion loan instrument to finance
joint defence procurement. The EU has also looked at expanding its Permanent Structured
Cooperation (PESCO) projects, aimed at harmonising EU defence cooperation among Member
States.
However, long term ambitions for EU Strategic Autonomy face several challenges, some of which
may prove fatal to the aims of the project. These include:
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- Expediency – The tension between European nations pushing for rapid rearmament (and
are therefore willing to purchase off-the-shelf military kit from third-country suppliers), and
those calling for Member States to spend within the EU to stimulate the bloc’s defence
industry.
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- Resources – The reluctance of some Northern European nations to issue joint debt for
defence investment, while some Member States want to redefine military spending to
allocate EU resources to domestic infrastructure or climate change initiatives.6
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- Sovereignty – The varying levels of commitment by Member States to EU initiatives, given
their own domestic priorities, national defence industries, as well as commitments to NATO.
Unlike NATO, the EU has chosen to pursue a supranational approach to strengthening defence
capabilities, linking defence-industrial cooperation to Single Market membership, as well as restricting
conditions on third-party participation.
UK Post-Brexit Security Interests
The security of the Euro-Atlantic and the emergence of a separate EU security architecture are
therefore two distinct, and potentially competing, ambitions. The latter poses risks for the UK,
through the potential undermining of NATO through alternative structures.
Advancing UK security interests requires Britain to lead through separate and bilateral engagement,
while avoiding institutional arrangements that compromise sovereignty, limit flexibility of
action, and create protectionist defence-trade arrangements (especially via the exclusion of US
defence firms).